During periods of market turmoil, open-source intelligence (OSINT) and social media posts can act like a digital early-warning system—helping investors make bold decisions even when uncertainty is high. Here’s how they work together to build confidence in selling:
1. Real-Time Sentiment Analysis. Social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Reddit, and LinkedIn become hotbeds of investor sentiment. OSINT tools scrape and analyze this chatter to detect bearish sentiment spikes, influencer signals, retail investor panic etc. This gives institutional players a pulse on crowd psychology—often before traditional media catches up.
2. Pattern Recognition from Public Data. OSINT platforms aggregate news headlines, regulatory filings, geopolitical developments, satellite imagery or shipping data etc.
For example, if tankers are idling off a coast or a central bank’s website quietly updates its policy stance, OSINT tools can flag it. These subtle cues, when combined with social media buzz, can validate a decision to exit positions.
3. Confirmation Bias in Action. When markets are volatile, traders often look for confirmation of their instincts. Seeing a flood of posts or OSINT reports aligning with their fears (e.g., “bank run in progress,” “CEO dumped shares”) can tip the scale toward selling.
4. Filling the Information Vacuum: In fast-moving crises—like a tech stock meltdown or geopolitical flashpoint—official data lags. OSINT and social media fill that gap, offering unfiltered ground reports, leaked memos or whistleblower posts, crowdsourced financial models or charts etc. This immediacy gives traders the confidence to act decisively, even when traditional sources are silent.
During the 2025 Iran-Israel conflict, open-source intelligence (OSINT) and social media appears to have played a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment—especially among institutional traders and hedge funds looking for early signals to de-risk, as it was evident that price action on the oil market was ahead of news break. We scrolled the web and used generative AI to dig up how they helped build confidence to sell despite the chaos. Here is what we found out:
1. OSINT Flagged Real-Time Escalation
Platforms like Oryx, Janes, and satellite-based trackers picked up:
- Unusual troop movements and missile deployments in Iran and Israel
- Disruptions in oil tanker traffic near the Strait of Hormuz
- Thermal anomalies from satellite imagery suggesting strikes on infrastructure
These signals, corroborated by defense analysts on X and Telegram, gave traders a head start before official news broke.
2. Social Media Amplified Ground-Level Intel
Even before mainstream media confirmed it, users on X and Telegram shared:
- Videos of missile launches, air raid sirens, and airport shutdowns
- Leaked footage (some real, some AI-generated) showing damage to Israeli and Iranian sites
- Posts from Iranian and Israeli citizens describing fuel shortages, panic buying, and military drafts
Despite the flood of misinformation, savvy traders used cross-verification techniques—like reverse image search and geolocation—to separate signal from noise.
3. Narrative Momentum Drove Herd Behavior
Once a few credible OSINT accounts and financial influencers flagged the risk, the narrative snowballed:
- Bearish sentiment surged on Reddit and X
- Sell signals were echoed by algo-trading bots scanning for keywords like “missile,” “oil spike,” and “Strait of Hormuz”
- Institutional investors began offloading positions in oil-sensitive sectors and emerging markets
4. Confidence Through Crowdsourced Consensus
In the absence of clarity, traders leaned on collective intelligence:
- Discord servers and private Slack groups lit up with real-time analysis
- Analysts shared heatmaps, shipping data, and oil futures volatility charts
- The consensus: “This is real, and it’s going to hit supply chains and inflation hard”
That collective conviction gave many the confidence to sell early—before the broader market reacted.
Here’s a day-by-day summary of major headlines from the Iran-Israel conflict between June 10 and June 24, 2025, based on data collected from the web:
June 10–12: Tensions Escalate
- June 10–11: U.S. intelligence warns of imminent Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
- June 12: Israel launches a massive air assault on Iran, targeting nuclear and military sites including Natanz and Fordow. Hundreds of warplanes and drones are used.
June 13–15: War Breaks Out
- June 13: Iran retaliates with ballistic missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities. Civilian casualties reported on both sides.
- June 14: Israel strikes Tehran’s oil depots and nuclear labs. Iran hits Tel Aviv and Haifa. Israeli PM Netanyahu warns “Tehran will burn” if attacks continue.
- June 15: Israel claims aerial superiority over Tehran. Iran targets Haifa and Tel Aviv again. Over 600 killed in Iran, 28 in Israel by this point.
June 16–18: Global Alarm
- June 16: Israel bombs Iran’s state broadcaster and hospitals. Iran hits Israeli power stations. U.S. warns Iran not to escalate.
- June 17: Trump says U.S. has “complete control of Iranian skies.” Iran threatens to strike U.S. bases. Israel kills top IRGC commanders.
- June 18: Iran fires long-range Sejjil missiles. Israel strikes Tehran and Karaj. Internet blackout in Iran. Khamenei warns of “irreparable consequences” if U.S. intervenes.
June 19–21: U.S. Joins the Fight
- June 19: Iran hits Soroka Hospital in Israel. Netanyahu vows revenge. Israel bombs Iran’s internal security HQ.
- June 20: Trump orders U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan) using bunker-buster bombs. Iran vows retaliation.
- June 21: Iran fires missiles at Israel despite ceasefire talks. Israel strikes Isfahan again. Khamenei appears on TV, claiming “victory” and warning the U.S..
June 22–24: Ceasefire & Fallout
- June 22: Trump declares strikes “successful.” Iran’s uranium stockpile reportedly damaged but not destroyed.
- June 23: Ceasefire brokered by U.S. and Qatar takes effect. Israel reopens airspace. Iran warns it can retaliate again if provoked.
June 24: World leaders urge diplomacy. Israel claims it degraded Iran’s nuclear program by “years.” Casualty estimates: ~650+ killed in Iran, 30+ in Israel, thousands injured.
In contrast to what the day-by-day summary of news break showed, the price action as depicted in the chart shows that oil traders were clearly pricing in future news break. This explains why oil prices rose steeply during the 02-10 Jun period, ahead of the news of escalation. It also explains why new highs were not forming during the 13-20 Jun period, despite the global alarm, and with US joining the fight. This goes to show how oil traders may have called the war, potentially using sentiment analysis.
